Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4262
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MQ 4262 · DFW → JAN
departs 7:33 PM CT · arrives 9:05 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 19%
Sat 10/31 20%
Sun 11/1 29%
Mon 11/2 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAN more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at JAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JAN?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JAN
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
JAN (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.