Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4279
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Today
MQ 4279 · MAF → DFW
departs 8:10 PM CT · arrives 9:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 9h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/29 48%
Fri 10/30 34%
Sat 10/31 15%
Sun 11/1 16%
Mon 11/2 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave MAF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MAF (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 6,500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.