Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4316
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
MQ 4316 · MAR → MIA
departs 2:22 PM -04 · arrives 5:47 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 34%
Fri 10/30 34%
Sat 10/31 27%
Sun 11/1 26%
Mon 11/2 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave MAR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MAR
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MAR (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MIA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,633 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.24 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.