MQ 4326 · STL → MIA

departs 6:20 PM CT · arrives 10:07 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from STL are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4326 · STL → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?