Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR NEW ZEALAND · FLIGHT NZ 5 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

NZ 5 · LAX → AKL

departs 9:31 PM PT · arrives 6:17 AM NZDT

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 28h before departure

Arrive at AKL more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AKL?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AKL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

NZ 5 · LAX → AKL

Odds over time

How late will it get to AKL?