Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR NEW ZEALAND · FLIGHT NZ 5 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

NZ 5 · LAX → AKL

departs 9:31 PM PT · arrives 6:25 AM NZDT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at AKL more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±4 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AKL?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 9pm departures from LAX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AKL

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.01 in

AKL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

NZ 5 · LAX → AKL

Odds over time

How late will it get to AKL?