Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5044 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

OH 5044 · DCA → GSP

departs 7:18 PM ET · arrives 8:55 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 41h before departure

Arrive at GSP more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to GSP?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 12% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 7pm departures from DCA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

GSP (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5044 · DCA → GSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to GSP?