Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5404 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

OH 5404 · DCA → RDU

departs 4:20 PM ET · arrives 5:39 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 39h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↑ 4pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5404 · DCA → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?