Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5601 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

OH 5601 · DCA → ORF

departs 4:02 PM ET · arrives 5:13 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 34h before departure

Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORF?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ 4pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

ORF (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5601 · DCA → ORF

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORF?