OO 3436 · YLW → SEA

took off 2:34 PM PDT · landed 3:20 PM PT (scheduled 1:44 PM PDT → 3:03 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±1 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SEA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at YLW

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at SEA that day

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ 1pm departures from YLW are usually not late

Weather at each end

YLW (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

SEA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.33 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3436 · YLW → SEA

Odds over time

How late did it get to SEA?