Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3436
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 3436 · YLW → SEA
departs 1:50 PM PDT · arrives 3:07 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Thu 10/29 14%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 17%
Sun 11/1 22%
Mon 11/2 17%
Tue 11/3 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave YLW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Early flights usually leave on time
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at YLW
↓
1pm departures from YLW are usually not late
Weather at each end
YLW (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.