OO 3491 · FAT → SAN

took off 11:57 AM PT · expected to land 12:52 PM PT (scheduled 11:56 AM PT → 1:26 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAN?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FAT

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

FAT (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3491 · FAT → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?