Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3491
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 3491 · FAT → SAN
departs 11:44 AM PT · arrives 1:14 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Thu 10/29 19%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 24%
Sun 11/1 29%
Mon 11/2 28%
Tue 11/3 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave FAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FAT
↓
11am departures from FAT are usually not late
Weather at each end
FAT (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.