Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3781
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
OO 3781 · MFR → SEA
departs 6:15 AM PT · arrives 7:52 AM PT
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 5%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 9%
Fri 10/30 9%
Sat 10/31 8%
Sun 11/1 9%
Mon 11/2 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave MFR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at MFR that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from MFR are usually not late
Weather at each end
MFR (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.