Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3781
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
OO 3781 · MFR → SEA
departs 6:15 AM PT · arrives 7:52 AM PT
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 5%
Wed 10/28 11%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 9%
Sat 10/31 8%
Sun 11/1 9%
Mon 11/2 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave MFR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 0.6 mi forecast at MFR that day
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from MFR are usually not late
Weather at each end
MFR (origin)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling 1,900 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 4,733 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.