Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3783
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
OO 3783 · MSP → IAD
departs 2:30 PM CT · arrives 6:04 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 15%
Fri 10/30 21%
Sun 11/1 22%
Mon 11/2 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
↑
2pm departures from MSP are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.19 in
IAD (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.