Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3836
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
OO 3836 · YYZ → MSP
departs 12:53 PM EDT · arrives 2:01 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 11%
Fri 10/30 13%
Sat 10/31 18%
Sun 11/1 16%
Mon 11/2 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
↑
This route's recent record
↑
12pm departures from YYZ are often late
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at YYZ
Weather at each end
YYZ (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.19 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.