Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3851
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
OO 3851 · MSP → RAP
departs 2:45 PM CT · arrives 3:29 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 12%
Fri 10/30 18%
Sat 10/31 24%
Sun 11/1 18%
Mon 11/2 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at RAP more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±3 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RAP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at RAP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RAP?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
↑
2pm departures from MSP are often late
↑
MSP is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.19 in
RAP (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.