Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3865
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
OO 3865 · FSD → MSP
departs 1:02 PM CT · arrives 2:11 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 10%
Fri 10/30 11%
Sat 10/31 19%
Sun 11/1 10%
Mon 11/2 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±1 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave FSD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at FSD that day
↑
Other factors
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
FSD (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.02 in
MSP (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.23 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.