Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3865
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
OO 3865 · MSP → FSD
departs 10:58 AM CT · arrives 12:08 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 11%
Fri 10/30 19%
Sat 10/31 22%
Sun 11/1 17%
Mon 11/2 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at FSD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FSD?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at FSD that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
↑
This flight has been late 23% of the time recently
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
FSD usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.19 in
FSD (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.