Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3870
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
OO 3870 · MSP → FSD
departs 2:52 PM CT · arrives 4:02 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 12%
Fri 10/30 16%
Sat 10/31 23%
Sun 11/1 20%
Mon 11/2 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±1 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at FSD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FSD?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at FSD that day
↑
2pm departures from MSP are often late
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
FSD usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.23 in
FSD (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.