OO 4063 · MEM → MSP

took off 6:45 PM CT · landed 9:02 PM CT (scheduled 6:39 PM CT → 8:59 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MSP?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at MSP that day

↑ Arrivals into MSP at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from MEM are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MEM

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MEM (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSP (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4063 · MEM → MSP

Odds over time

How late did it get to MSP?