OO 4109 · ATL → SBN

took off 8:02 PM ET · landed 9:35 PM ET (scheduled 7:42 PM ET → 9:39 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SBN?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from ATL are often late

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SBN (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4109 · ATL → SBN

Odds over time

How late did it get to SBN?