Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4681
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Today
OO 4681 · ATW → ORD
departs 2:36 PM CT · arrives 3:50 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/29 30%
Fri 10/30 23%
Sat 10/31 42%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave ATW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ATW (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 9,333 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.01 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.