Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4786
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28
OO 4786 · IAH → MSY
departs 9:48 PM CT · arrives 11:13 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 10/28
Today 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.05 in
MSY (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.