Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4969
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Today
OO 4969 · SJC → PHX
departs 4:14 PM PT · arrives 6:18 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/29 22%
Fri 10/30 42%
Sat 10/31 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC
Weather at each end
SJC (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 9,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.