Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4969
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 4969 · SJC → PHX
departs 4:26 PM PT · arrives 6:30 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Thu 10/29 22%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±6 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.6 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC
↓
OO's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
SJC (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.65 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.