OO 4989 · ORD → SBN

took off 3:53 PM CT · landed 5:16 PM ET (scheduled 2:47 PM CT → 4:41 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SBN?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
✓
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SBN (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4989 · ORD → SBN

Odds over time

How late did it get to SBN?