Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4989
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 4989 · ORD → SBN
departs 3:20 PM CT · arrives 5:33 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Thu 10/29 31%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 42%
Sun 11/1 24%
Mon 11/2 27%
Tue 11/3 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at SBN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SBN?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 7,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SBN (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.