OO 5017 · CMX → ORD

took off 2:59 PM ET · expected to land 3:04 PM CT (scheduled 3:06 PM ET → 3:50 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORD?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ 3pm departures from CMX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CMX (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.13 in

ORD (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5017 · CMX → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?