OO 5789 · ORD → SAT

took off 1:55 PM CT · expected to land 4:21 PM CT (scheduled 1:27 PM CT → 4:32 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

2% chance · ±0 pts +14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAT?

LIVE

On time or early
98%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5789 · ORD → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?