Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5820
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Today
OO 5820 · LAX → SMF
departs 1:36 PM PT · arrives 3:12 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/29 14%
Fri 10/30 22%
Sat 10/31 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from LAX are often late
↑
LAX is busy at that time
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.