Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5820
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 5820 · LAX → SMF
departs 1:55 PM PT · arrives 3:32 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Thu 10/29 14%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±4 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from LAX are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
↑
LAX is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
This flight has been late 12% of the time recently
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.