QK 500 · YUL → EWR

departs 6:46 PM EDT · arrives 8:25 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±5 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at YUL

Weather at each end

YUL (origin) Gusts4 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QK 500 · YUL → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?