Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR CANADA JAZZ · FLIGHT QK 500 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

QK 500 · YUL → EWR

departs 6:26 PM EDT · arrives 8:06 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±5 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

YUL (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QK 500 · YUL → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?