QK 820 · DCA → YUL

departs 5:53 AM ET · arrives 7:46 AM EDT

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 AM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at YUL more than 15 minutes late?

4% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YUL?

On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from DCA are usually not late

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

YUL (destination) Gusts4 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QK 820 · DCA → YUL

Odds over time

How late will it get to YUL?