QK 824 · DCA → YUL

departs 3:56 PM ET · arrives 5:51 PM EDT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at YUL more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YUL?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at DCA that day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

YUL (destination) Gusts4 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QK 824 · DCA → YUL

Odds over time

How late will it get to YUL?