Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2011
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
QX 2011 · YVR → SEA
departs 6:01 AM PDT · arrives 7:03 AM PT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 10%
Fri 10/30 9%
Sat 10/31 13%
Sun 11/1 12%
Mon 11/2 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave YVR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
YVR is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into SEA at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
YVR (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.08 in
SEA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.