Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2011
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
QX 2011 · YVR → SEA
departs 6:00 AM PDT · arrives 7:01 AM PT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Wed 10/28 10%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 9%
Sat 10/31 13%
Sun 11/1 12%
Mon 11/2 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave YVR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↑
YVR is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into SEA at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
YVR (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,033 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
SEA (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 4,733 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.