QX 2024 · PDX → SBA

departs 2:49 PM PT · arrives 5:13 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±3 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SBA?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 2pm departures from PDX are often late

↑ Gusts to 28 kt forecast at PDX that day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ PDX usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.15 in

SBA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QX 2024 · PDX → SBA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBA?