Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2024
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
QX 2024 · PDX → SBA
departs 2:43 PM PT · arrives 5:15 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 16%
Sun 11/1 16%
Mon 11/2 14%
Tue 11/3 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±5 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave PDX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at SBA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SBA?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SBA
↑
2pm departures from PDX are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX
↓
PDX usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PDX (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip 0.01 in
SBA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.