Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2106
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
QX 2106 · MFR → SEA
departs 1:23 PM PT · arrives 2:53 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 25%
Fri 10/30 30%
Sat 10/31 24%
Sun 11/1 29%
Mon 11/2 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave MFR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SEA that day
↑
1pm departures from MFR are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MFR (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.