Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2106
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
QX 2106 · MFR → SEA
departs 1:21 PM PT · arrives 2:51 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Wed 10/28 22%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 30%
Sat 10/31 24%
Sun 11/1 29%
Mon 11/2 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave MFR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
MFR is prone to delays
↑
1pm departures from MFR are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MFR (origin)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling 1,900 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 4,733 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.