Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2200
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
QX 2200 · GPI → SEA
departs 8:57 AM -05 · arrives 8:38 AM PT
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 35%
Fri 10/30 14%
Sat 10/31 16%
Sun 11/1 15%
Mon 11/2 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±3 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave GPI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at GPI that day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↓
8am departures from GPI are usually not late
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
GPI (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.05 in
SEA (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.