Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2200
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
QX 2200 · GPI → SEA
departs 8:57 AM -05 · arrives 8:36 AM PT
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Wed 10/28 19%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 14%
Sat 10/31 16%
Sun 11/1 15%
Mon 11/2 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave GPI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 0.8 mi forecast at GPI that day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↓
8am departures from GPI are usually not late
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
GPI (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip 0.04 in
SEA (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.