Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2494
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
QX 2494 · SAN → SFO
departs 1:11 PM PT · arrives 2:52 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 25%
Fri 10/30 32%
Sat 10/31 22%
Sun 11/1 42%
Mon 11/2 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±3 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
1pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.