Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2494
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
QX 2494 · SAN → SFO
departs 1:10 PM PT · arrives 2:50 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Wed 10/28 22%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 32%
Sat 10/31 22%
Sun 11/1 42%
Mon 11/2 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,100 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.