SY 394 · SFO → MSP

departs 12:59 PM PT · arrives 6:30 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSP?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MSP that day

↑ 12pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Arrivals into MSP at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSP (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.28 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

SY 394 · SFO → MSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSP?