Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
TURKISH AIRLINES · FLIGHT TK 78
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
TK 78 · MIA → IST
departs 10:51 PM ET · arrives 4:25 PM +03
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 15%
Fri 10/30 20%
Sat 10/31 18%
Mon 11/2 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at IST more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IST more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at IST more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IST?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at MIA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IST
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,729 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.41 in
IST (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.