Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1515 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Yesterday

UA 1515 · SFO → MCI

departs 4:29 PM PT · arrives 10:15 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MCI?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCI (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1515 · SFO → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?